Fighter jet purchase increasingly linked to US appeasement By Carl Meyer Published July 28, 2010

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As Canadians digest the fallout from their government's announcement last week that the country would purchase expensive, state-of-the-art fighter jets from Lockheed Martin, there are mounting indications the decision was as much political as strategic.

The consensus among experts and former government officials is that the Canadian bid gives significant foreign government support at a time when the entire multilateral program is in jeopardy.

Yet they also note that Canada's official order amounted to 15 fewer aircraft than had originally been reported—there was the assumption that the program would replace all of Canada's fleet of 80 refurbished CF-18s—while the government didn't actually sign a contract, delaying the decision until 2013. The result: The F-35 announcement is being seen as more show than substance.

The timing of Defence Minister Peter MacKay's announcement last week that Canada had chosen the F-35 to replace its fleet of CF-18s, whose lifespans are set to expire beginning in 2017, is significant in the history of the Joint Strike Fighter program.

The program is the largest fighter design scheme in history, hitting close to $400-billion in value, and producing thousands upon thousands of planes. Canada has been there almost from the beginning, buying in by contributing US$10 million to research and development in 1997 and continuing to participate in phases all the way through.

But the program has been marred by cost overruns and price jumps, fights between the US Congress and the Obama administration, and defence cuts across the globe that threaten to trim orders or ditch the aircraft entirely in favour of cheaper alternatives. US Defence Secretary Robert Gates recently fired the general in charge of the program after the Pentagon projected massive cost increases.

The Canadian Forces say the plane fits the country's need for a next-generation fighter that can defend North American airspace through NORAD and conduct joint NATO operations. It notes that its interoperability with other countries is necessary for those operations, that the Canadian environment demands a robust plane, and that the F-35 is the only aircraft available to do this.

Yet ruminations are out there that suggest the move was a calculated decision to give Canada's most powerful military ally, and the other JSF participants, a bit of a break.

Cabinet documents obtained by the Globe and Mail in June showed that while the government expected a "negative reaction" to its decision to push ahead with the F-35 instead of looking at other options, it decided to stick with the plane because a "competitive process would send [a] signal to US/partners that we are not fully committed" to the program.

As well, an upbeat Lockheed Martin president Steve O'Bryan suggested during an airshow last Friday in the UK that ever since "international commitment from the partners has solidified," the program "is in excellent shape."

Alan Williams, a former assistant deputy minister for materiel at the Department of National Defence, sees last week's announcement as being specifically designed to give US congressmen a strong signal that the project still has the support of foreign allies.

"If everybody [left the program], the [US] Senate and the legislature would be in a much stronger position to cancel the program if they wanted to," Mr. Williams said in an interview last week. "The fact that this is an international program—I wouldn't say protects it totally from huge cuts, but I would say you're not going to go and tell all the other members 'sorry, too bad,' because it's too embarrassing."

His view seemed to echo that of industry analysts. James McAleese, an American defence expert, was quoted in the Washington Post pointing to the timing of Canada's announcement.

"Their production queue has been delayed for the US Air Force and the Navy, so having allies ordering today is much more valuable in terms of protecting the program's stability and reducing the overall unit cost," he told the Post.

To date, none of the nine partners involved in the JSF—the US, the UK, Italy, the Netherlands, Canada, Turkey, Australia, Norway and Denmark—have signed any contracts that would commit announced funds to the project.

It is outside partners who may do that first. Israel, one of the US's most staunchest military allies, appears to be in the final stages of laying down a contract. But Israel, like many other JSF partners, is waiting to see if it can feed its regional industries with the contract, and there are rumours the procurement might be delayed. Its defence minister spoke recently about finding a "balance" between filling "needs" and the American willingness to sell planes.

While the Australian government has made noise supporting the F-35s several times, including in a 2008 white paper, it is proceeding with caution when purchasing. The government approved the purchase of 14 F-35s in November, but won't move on 58 more until at least 2012.

The staged approval approach "allows time for refinement of costs and more detailed definition of support requirements," wrote Dallas Frazer, an assistant to the Australian High Commission's defence adviser, in an email.

Norway has a similar story. While a Norwegian defence paper pointed to the F-35 as a preferred purchase, there still hasn't been any government or parliamentary decision related to financing, meaning there is still no contract.

Yet Pål Bjørseth, the Norwegian F-35 program director, wrote in an email that the Canadian announcement would "create positive energy into the established F-35 partnership."

Still other countries involved are less than completely secure. Denmark is considering the F-35 but is also looking at other options. A decision was supposed to be made this summer, but the Danish parliament has many MPs hostile to the JSF program, and while the body is not expected to debate the matter until 2012. The Dutch parliament recently voted to pull out of the program and cancel an order.

So far, the UK has committed to buying hundreds of the fighters alongside hundreds of another plane, the Eurofighter Typhoon, as well.

But even with the UK, there are underlying problems. The country is currently undergoing a "strategic defence and security review" that was announced prior to their elections. The report is expected in the fall, but the defence budget is already expected to be in line for a heavy beating. If cuts happen, the F-35s will probably be saved, considering their integrated role in the country's defence plans, but their numbers might be trimmed.

Wing Commander Geoffrey Yapp, a defence adviser at the UK High Commission, remained positive, saying he didn't consider the program in doubt.

cmeyer@embassymag.ca