Iran calls out Harper as Gulf tensions rise IAEA chief also raises alarm, but reported Israeli intel, expert analysis paints a more complex picture. By Carl Meyer Published January 25, 2012    7 Comments

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As the United States' navy flexes its muscles in the Persian Gulf, Prime Minister Stephen Harper's statement that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program is being called "uninformed" and "inflammatory" by the Iranian Embassy—while security and disarmament analysts say the truth is more complex than either side is letting on.

On Jan. 16, Mr. Harper told CBC that it is "beyond dispute" that Iran's nuclear program is aiming to develop nuclear weapons. The only dispute at this point, he said, was "how far advanced it is, and how far off it will be, until they actually develop those weapons and develop the capability to deliver those weapons."

Iranian Chargé d'Affaires Kambiz Sheikh-Hassani wrote in an email to Embassy that Mr. Harper and others who suggest Iran is developing a nuclear weapon are casting "uninformed, undocumented, and inflammatory allegations."

In his interview, Mr. Harper pointed to the International Atomic Energy Agency, the UN's nuclear watchdog, as supplying some of his evidence. One widely-cited agency report from Nov. 8, 2011 said Iran had performed tests that were "relevant to the development of a nuclear explosive device." Canada tightened its sanctions against Iran in response.

As well, three days after Mr. Harper spoke to the CBC, IAEA director general Yukiya Amano told Financial Times Deutschland that "what we know suggests the development of nuclear weapons." His agency is scheduled to visit Iran from Jan. 29 to 31, as the US ramps up navy presence in the Strait of Hormuz, sending a carrier alongside French and British warships through the strait on Jan. 23 to test whether Iran would make good on threats to block the passage.

But Mr. Sheikh-Hassani wrote that "we invite Mr. Harper to carefully read IAEA's numerous reports," arguing the agency has made repeated assurances that Iran's nuclear program hasn't been diverted towards building a weapon.

Iran has often said that its nuclear program is for peaceful civilian purposes only; its foreign ministry reiterated this position on Jan. 23.

As a member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty, Iran has a right to enjoy peaceful nuclear energy, including uranium enrichment, the envoy wrote. He added the country's defence doctrine makes "no place" for nuclear weapons, and that acquiring, stockpiling, or using them would be "forbidden according to our religious teachings."

"All Iranian facilities are under 24-hour IAEA camera surveillance and the agency has had the unprecedented 4000 man/day inspection of these facilities," he wrote.

Canada has passed multiple sanctions and has issued statements condemning Iran's human rights situation. Foreign Minister John Baird maintains the Iranian government "poses the most significant threats to global peace and security today."

Canada's allies have passed sanctions as well, with the US ramping up theirs on Dec. 31, and the EU tightening its own on Jan. 23. The EU hopes to hit Iran where it hurts, banning the import, purchasing, or transport of Iranian oil and freezing Iranian central bank assets inside the EU. Existing oil contracts will also be phased out by July. BBC News has reported that the EU gobbles up roughly 20 per cent of Iran's oil exports.

More complex than 'beyond dispute'

Mr. Baird's theme of Iran threatening global security was touched upon by Israel's envoy to the UN, Ron Prosor, on Jan. 24, when he said in a speech to the UN Security Council that "Iran's efforts to develop nuclear weapons represent the greatest threat to peace and security in the world."

But even so, a Jan. 18 report in the Israeli newspaper Haaretz wrote that an "intelligence assessment" presented by Israeli officials to chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Martin Dempsey said "Iran has not yet decided whether to make a nuclear bomb."

"The Israeli view is that while Iran continues to improve its nuclear capabilities, it has not yet decided whether to translate these capabilities into a nuclear weapon—or, more specifically, a nuclear warhead mounted atop a missile. Nor is it clear when Iran might make such a decision," the paper reported.

Israel says it does not comment on speculation in the media.

But others have also said as much. US Defense Secretary Leon Panetta said the following to CBS on Jan. 6: "Are they trying to develop a nuclear weapon? No. But we know that they're trying to develop a nuclear capability."

Canadian and US security experts also agreed the situation was more complex.

Bruce W. MacDonald, senior director of the nonproliferation and arms control program at the United States Institute of Peace, which has been funded by the US Congress, told Embassy it was not beyond dispute that Iran was building a bomb.

"It's certainly true that they are preserving a lot of options, and the only question in my mind is, 'How close to the edge do they intend to go?,'" he said.

"Some people are thinking that they might want to get up very close to the line of being capable of making a weapon, others think they will happily go over that line. That's going to be hard to tell."

But he added that the "logical human reaction," given difficulties he has seen confront IAEA inspectors, is that "'Well, what do you have to hide?'"

Jez Littlewood, director of Carleton University's Canadian Centre of Intelligence and Security Studies, said that while there were "certain discrepancies in their known activity," as revealed by IAEA reports, it's not clear how far Iran has gone in its nuclear program and what it intends to do going forward.

He cautioned that both the supreme leader of Iran and Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad were not all-powerful and there are "significant splits and divisions within the ruling elite of Iranian politics."

The impact of the Arab revolutions, sanctions, pro-democracy movements within the country such as the 2009 Green movement, and greater international isolation also suggest that "there is still time and room to influence any decision," he wrote in an email to Embassy.

cmeyer@embassymag.ca