New stealth fighter project highlights Russia, China as future threats
With their military having spent the better part of a decade amongst insurgents, improvised explosive devices and suicide bombers, Canadians have arguably become accustomed to the idea that future wars will largely consist of low-intensity counterinsurgency conflicts. As a result, many are questioning the government's recent decision to purchase 65 stealth strike fighters—a fleet of planes that would not have been used by Canadians in Afghanistan, and instead conjures images of Cold War arms races.
Yet when he was appointed Canada's most recent foreign minister in October 2008, Lawrence Cannon received a stack of briefing documents prepared by the Department of Foreign Affairs. Tucked into one section was a page that discussed the global political and security environment. China figured prominently.
"Not only is China an economic force, it is an increasingly important force. It is investing heavily in its conventional forces," reads the document, which also mentions Russia. "This changing geopolitical dynamic is occurring against the backdrop of a return to hard power politics, in which military might [will] define the strategic balance."
Many experts and stakeholders say such an assessment is correct, and are standing behind the F-35 fighter jet procurement, warning that North America's long-term security depends on Canada helping respond to Chinese economic and military expansion, on the one hand, and the re-birth of a robust Russian bear on the other with its own show of hard power.
The future adversaries?
On Feb. 18, 2009, American and Canadian fighter jets scrambled to intercept two Russian bombers that were approaching Canadian airspace. For Canadian military officials, the Russians' timing was inauspicious: Barack Obama was scheduled to fly to Ottawa the very next day for his first foreign visit as US president.
The incident caused a strain in Canada-Russia relations. Defence Minister Peter MacKay and Prime Minister Stephen Harper called the Russians out, with the prime minister saying that he had "deep concern" with "increasingly aggressive Russian actions around the globe." Russia denied any ill-will.
Maj.-Gen. Tom Lawson, the Canadian military's assistant chief of the air staff, says that in the 1980s, there was a set choreography between Canada, the US and Russia. Russia would regularly communicate its Arctic manoeuvers, and Canada would diligently scramble its CF-18s to monitor its northern borders, keen to intercept if it found that Canadian airspace was breached.
The Russian flights were discontinued following the end of the Cold War, but backed by strong oil and gas revenues—and a renewed sense of international purpose—the flights were restarted in August 2007. However, Maj.-Gen. Lawson said there has been less willingness on the part of the Russians to communicate their activities in the region, and the F-35 could change the game because incoming air forces intending to enter into Canadian airspace would be surprised to confront an undetectable threshold—a stealth strike fighter patrolling the northern reaches of Canadian territory, poised to secure Canada's sovereignty.
At the same time, Russia has begun to exhibit a stronger presence in the Far North, planting a flag on the Arctic Ocean sea floor in 2007 and dropping paratroopers at the North Pole in April. Maj.-Gen. Lawson said Canada cannot ignore Russia's renewed interest in the Far North. "In fact, they've been exercising those assets a lot more in recent years," said Maj.-Gen. Lawson. "So we have to respond to that."
Robert Heubert, a strategic studies expert at the University of Calgary, said it's difficult for anyone to predict what types of conflicts will arise in the future, but he said the Canadian government has to prepare for a variety of combat missions and defense strategies.
"We've got some very difficult strategic decisions based on a very uncertain future, and these decisions are going to be critical," he said.
Mr. Heubert said that many think fighter jets are relics of conflicts passed. Even if that is the case, he said, the military requires this upgrade in order to uphold Canada's part in the allied joint defense—a deterrent to potential aggressors—and to maintain sovereignty over Canadian airspace in case the US decides its own security is threatened.
He reiterated Maj.-Gen. Lawson's point that the Russians have been increasingly active in northern international air space, and he said Russia is in the process of developing a modern fleet of long-range bombers with hopes of having them operational by 2015.
"It's going to be both," said Mr. Heubert, explaining that the warfare of the future may include inter-state conflicts, but could also continue to occur between states and ambiguous insurgencies, as has been the case in Afghanistan and Iraq.
"We are in a period where the focus is on state [versus] non-state actors," he said, though the rise of nations like China and Russia could eventually lead to conflicts between countries jockeying for geo-political supremacy.
"If you look at Chinese procurement, if you look at Chinese rhetoric, if you look at Chinese actions, they're clearly developing a combat capability that will allow them to go beyond just purely defensive needs," said Mr. Heubert.
James Fergusson, the director of the Centre for Defense and Security Studies at the University of Manitoba, agreed that China should also be added to the list of potential adversaries—perhaps sooner than some expect.
He said that over the last decade, China's military has become increasingly modernized even as its economic interests have become more international in scope. The pursuit of natural resources to fuel its industrial machine, as well as the sensitive strategic issues surrounding Taiwan and the Koreas, are enticing the Middle Kingdom to look beyond its borders, said Mr. Fergusson.
"All of this amounts to a growing...potential for China to become more aggressive, more globally engaged [and more threatening] to Western interests," said Mr. Fergusson. [That would] lead to a response from the West, which will include us."
Hard to predict
But Liberal Defense critic Ujjal Dosanjh rejected the notion that China and Russia pose security threats to Canada in the foreseeable future, and he accused the government of being "stuck in the Cold War era." He acknowledged that the global hegemonic order has shifted, and that the world continues to face multiple types of threats. Those threats, he said, need to be dealt with by flexible means. At this point, he's not convinced that the striker fighters represent the appropriate response.
Mr. Dosanjh said there are more questions than answers surrounding the procurement of these fighters. "I can only speculate," he said, when asked for his take on Canada's future military strategy. "The government has given no indication of what their vision is for the strategic mandate of our forces is beyond 2011."
At the same time, despite the warnings about Russia and China, Maj.-Gen. Lawson said it's difficult to conceive of the Canadian air force going head-to-head with either country in the near future.
"There are very few developed nations that pose a real threat to us," he said, though he added it is conceivable that other adversaries could gain a similar fighter technology through sources outside of the joint strike fighter program.
Maj.-Gen. Lawson said it's difficult for anyone to predict the emergence of specific conflicts, and it would be wise for the Canadian Forces to be prepared for any type of combat and for an array of opponents. To that end, he said the role of the Canadian military isn't expected to change once the troops have returned home from Afghanistan, nor has Canada's military agenda be adjusted to conform to a new state-of-the-art fleet of fighters.
Rather, he said the Canada First Defense Strategy, a Conservative government roadmap outlining six primary missions, continues to provide the scaffolding for Canadian military operations. The list includes, among others, protecting Canadian sovereignty, providing joint-continental defense with US partners, responding to potential terrorist attacks and participating in large-scale international missions like the aerial bombing of Kosovo in 1999.
Alan Williams, a former assistant deputy minister experienced in procuring military contracts, worked on the joint strike fighter agreement back in 2002. Now, in 2010, he is disappointed that there has not been a public discussion over what the role of the Canadian Forces ought to be moving forward, and how these fighters fit into that mold.
"If you're going to be spending $20 billion on this, you're not going to be spending it on something else," said Mr. Williams. "The number one priority for me in procurement, at all times, was [asking] what's best for our men and women who put their lives on the line for us," he said. "Without any question, that was it.... More important than industrial benefits, more important than anything else."
Having said that, Mr. Williams added that there are multiple ways to ensure that the Canadian Forces are properly equipped, and there is legitimacy in questioning what types of missions the forces will be engaged in, and with what tools.
eduggan@embassymag.ca
http://embassymag.ca/page/printpage/threats-07-28-2010